Jane's Weekly Update: 31st October 2025

We have a long lasting, significant weather system brewing for next week.

In the next week there is the potential for more than 25mm - an inch of rain - across the majority of southeastern Australia. Across southeastern SA, all of VIC and TAS, and southern NSW - the significant falls extend so far inland they reach Broken Hill.

As we go through Friday and Saturday there is a weak trough slowly crossing the eastern states. This brings areas of light and patchy rain, but also hit and miss showers and thunderstorms. If you're directly under a storm it will bring a heavy fall - otherwise as we go into the weekend it doesn't add up to much.

It is the following system that is the big one. Keep an eye on the day by day rain maps to see where it is heading, but it is likely to take from Sunday through to next Wednesday to cross central parts and the east.

And that is sure to create a bit of havoc at Flemington...

This is our classic combination of tropical moisture pouring into low pressure - working together in a spectacular way. With a Negative Indian Ocean Dipole, weak/near La Nina, and considerably warmer than average waters around the majority of Australia - we certainly have the moisture part of the rainfall equation.

The low pressure part of the equation is a slow moving low with a trough extending into the north. The trough spreads a band of rain through, while the low slowly wanders (as it is cut off from the fast moving westerly winds to our south), with rain circling around its centre. Latest guidance on Friday morning has most models suggesting a path that slowly tracks southwards, across southern NSW, VIC then TAS.

Then there may be another big system to follow, beginning in the west next Tuesday/Wednesday.

After that, we have weather modelling that isn't in agreement for the following week - beginning Monday November 11th.

The Euro model likes large areas of average to below average rain:

BoM's model has quite a different outlook, with above average rain for much of the south and east, and interior:

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Don't miss my latest video as I walk you through all these maps, as well as the latest on La Nina and Negative IOD - perfect if you have 14 minutes to spare!

In this series I'll take you through the drivers of our weather, highlighting any changes over time and things to watch out for (generally every Friday). It covers weather elements like temperature and rainfall, and how they are driven by moisture from the Pacific and Indian Oceans, as well as bursts of energy from low pressure (SAM and MJO).

See and hear my commentary as I take you through the weather pattern's effects on our rain and temperatures in detail over the next week, with a brief look at week 2 and beyond as well.

Plus what is driving our weather in the weeks and months ahead, with the latest on El Nino/La Nina, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM controls our weather systems), and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO connects tropical moisture to our weather systems).

I update this commentary each week, generally on Friday's. Make sure you are signed up (free or a subscription) so you don't miss an update.

Stay up to date with the forecast specifically for your area in our hour by hour outlook for the next 10 days. Download our app for iPhone and Android.

As always, you can see each of these graphics as soon as they update, as well as more information about them under our Rain Outlook and Seasonal Outlook pages within Jane's Update, along with our Snow Forecast in the snow season.